11th Annual Oscar Picks

It's a crazy world, where up is down, boy bands play instruments, and "Boss Baby" is an Academy Award-nominated movie. Fortunately, it stops there, and won't also become an Academy Award-winning movie. And I can guarantee that, because I know exactly who is going to win. And I've never, ever been wrong.*

(Previously: 2017, 2016, 2015,  2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008.)

Best Picture: I used to always get this category right. Now I always get it wrong. But this is the year I turn it around! I know it's down to "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri" and "The Shape of Water." (Some are predicting an upset by "Get Out" or "Lady Bird," but I just don't see it). If I wasn't sure before, their big win at the BAFTA's convinced me: this year's top prize is going to "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri."

Best Director: This one, however, WILL go to "The Shape of Water," as the Academy has recently moved to awarding the director of the most technically advanced film of the year. Guillermo del Toro will win this one.

Best Actor: There's no doubt in my mind that Gary Oldman is taking home the gold in this category. His turn as Winston Churchill in "Darkest Hour" is absolutely breathtaking, and he's finally bringing home a long-deserved award. And while young Timothée Chalamet may not be winning this time, we'll always have this video, where his high school self raps about statistics.

Best Actress: There's an outside chance that Saoirse Ronan could sneak in a win here, but I really can't picture anyone winning over Frances McDormand and her riveting turn in "Three Billboards." She's such a pro, and watching her act is truly watching a master at work.

Best Supporting Actor: I really, really, really love Sam Rockwell (particularly for his hilarious and heartfelt turn in "The Way, Way Back.") He's such an incredible actor, and so much fun to watch. (Plus, have you seen him dance?) All that to say, it's going to be really fun to see him walk away with the gold come Sunday.

Best Supporting Actress: It's another two-woman race, this time between Allison Janney and Laurie Metcalf. And here's the thing: while I absolutely adore Allison Janney (I own six of her movies!), I think Laurie Metcalf's heartbreaking and nuanced performance in "Lady Bird" is miles ahead of Janney's portrayal of LaVona Harding in "I, Tonya." However, Allison Janney has been unstoppable this awards season, and I think she'll come out on top once again.

Animated Feature: Sorry, "Boss Baby!" The award for Best Animated Feature will be the sweet, beautiful, musically rich "Coco!" Pixar gets to add another golden statue to their pile when they take home the win for this wonderful trip through the Land of the Dead.

Production Design: Let's be honest: "Blade Runner 2049" really SHOULD win this. It really, really should. But the scales seem to be tipping in "The Shape of Water's" direction, so I think they'll end up swimming away with the big award in the end.

Cinematography: BUT. THIS is where "Blade Runner 2049" is almost a shoe-in to win. Roger Deakins, legendary cinematographer, will finally, FINALLY win an Academy Award this year, after 14 (FOURTEEN) nominations!

Costume Design: I can hardly imagine a movie about gorgeous clothes not winning the Oscar for Best Costume Design. It'll be "Phantom Thread."

Film Editing: "Dunkirk" and "Baby Driver," two of my favorite films of the year, are in a dead heat for this category. And as much as I would love (LOVE) to predict this one for "Baby," I think the Academy is more likely to award the time-jumping narrative of "Dunkirk."

Makeup and Hairstyling: Awww, yes. Hair, done by one team of people, and makeup, done by another team. So sure, let's make them share a category! That is definitely a thing that makes sense. Anyway! While watching "Darkest Hour," I kept looking at Winston Churchill and thinking, "I am looking at a person that does not exist. Gary Oldman looks nothing like this guy on the screen, and there's simply not an actor that actually looks like that. For this astounding feat, "Darkest Hour" is the clear winner.

Original Score: I really loved the music in "Dunkirk," and I think they have a small chance of winning, as does "Phantom Thread." However, all of the momentum in this category seems to be for Alexandre Desplat's score for "The Shape of Water."

Original Song: Look out, 'cause here comes... a really tough category! Again, it comes down to two: "Remember Me" (the heartbreakingly beautiful earworm from "Coco," which appears in a remarkable three different forms in the film), and the power ballad "This is Me" from "The Greatest Showman." In the end though, the exceedingly talented Benj Pasek and Justin Paul will win their second Oscar in a row in this category, this time for "The Greatest Showman."

Original Screenplay: Talk about a STACKED category! The question of who will win comes down, though, to just two nominees: "Get Out" and "Three Billboards." Do you go with the really creative, original idea for a movie ("Get Out")? Or do you pick the one with the twisting story and razor sharp dialogue ("Three Billlboards")? I have a feeling most of the voters loved "Get Out" and will want to find a way to honor Jordan Peele, so he's got a shot here. However, I don't see it happening. I'm going with "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri."

Adapted Screenplay: Three things lead me to believe this award is going to James Ivory. 1) He's kind of old (89, actually) and that makes for a great Hollywood narrative. 2) He's been nominated three previous times and never won. 3) The voters seem to love "Call Me By Your Name," which likely won't pick up any other awards on Sunday. So there you have it: "Call Me By Your Name" will win Best Adapted Screenplay.

Sound Mixing: It's once again between "Dunkirk" and "Baby Driver." If it was a true RACE race, I would bet everything on "Baby Driver." But alas, Baby can't drive his Subaru through this one. The Academy historically loves war movies in this category, so I'm going "Dunkirk."

Sound Editing: I would love to be wrong in one of these sound categories, if only it meant that "Baby Driver" could pick up at least one Oscar. I don't think it's going to happen though; I think "Dunkirk" will win this one as well.

Visual Effects: I keep avoiding this category because I just! Don't! Want! To make! A decision! The effects in "Blade Runner 2049" were stunning. S T U N N I N G. They shouldn't be counted out in this category. On the other hand, though... you have those apes. This is the third in a trilogy of films that hasn't won yet in this category. I think it's very possible that the Academy will want to award the whole series by finally giving them a visual effects Oscar for "War for the Planet of the Apes."

Documentary Feature: Man, this one could go to any of these movies. I don't envy the voters on categories like this. In the end, I'll go with "Faces Places."

Documentary Short: The opioid crisis is about as topical as it gets, so I'm going to guess "Heroin(e)" will grab this award.

Foreign Language Film: The only movie I've heard of in this category is "A Fantastic Woman." (Something tells me that might be the case for a large percentage of the Academy voters as well.) Look for "A Fantastic Woman" to win here.

Animated Short: Guys, if "Dear Basketball" wins? Kobe Bryant will be an ACADEMY AWARD-WINNER. And I think that actually might happen on Sunday night! Pixar is usually not one to be bet against, and they still might pull out a win with "Lou." However, once I was reminded that Hollywood is a Laker town, I became convinced that this category is indeed going to "Dear Basketball."

Live Action Short: In this current climate, it's kind of hard to imagine that a short about a school shooting won't score a ton of votes. That's why I think the winner will be "DeKalb Elementary."


  Just kidding. I'm wrong about this... (sigh)... a lot. An awful lot. *stares out into the distance*