(Previously: 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008.)
Best Picture: A few weeks ago, I would have said that "Boyhood" was a lock. Now I'm not quite so sure. "Birdman" has been climbing up the prediction charts, and they are a serious threat to Richard Linklater et al. However, I don't think you can ignore the scope of filming the same film over the course of TWELVE YEARS, plus the emotional punch it packs at the end. That's why I think that "Boyhood" will be the one to ultimately walk away with the gold.
Best Director: If "Boyhood" does indeed take home the big prize, Academy voters are going to need another way to honor "Birdman," and I believe it will be in the form of Best Director going to Alejandro González Iñárritu. However, I certainly wouldn't be mad if Richard Linklater won.
Best Actor: Man, this is a tough one. Even as I'm typing I just don't know how this paragraph is going to end. Either you give it to Michael Keaton, thereby rewarding a long career and a Hollywood veteran (not to mention a remarkable speech-maker), or you go with Eddie Redmayne, the rising star with a masterful turn in a critically lauded biopic. They've each won their share of awards this season, but the thing I keep coming back to is the fact that Eddie Redmayne is still so young, and probably has plenty of chances to win this award in the future. In the end I think voters will want to honor Michael Keaton and his go-for-broke performance in "Birdman."The one thing that makes me nervous about that pick is the fact that Redmayne won the SAG Award, and for the last 10 years the winner of the SAG has gone on to win the Oscar. I may live to regret ignoring this indicator...
Best Actress: This category has basically been a lock for the past couple of years, and this year looks to be no different. Julianne Moore all but has this one in the bag, and it's about time! Her nomination for "Still Alice" is her FIFTH, so this one is a long time coming! Treat yo'self, Julianne Moore!
Best Supporting Actor: We're all thinking J.K. Simmons, right? J.K. Simmons? Cool, let's do it. J.K. Simmons!
Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette has been picking up every single award from the Golden Globe to the Critic's Choice, so come Sunday she'll have another one to throw on top of her pile!
Production Design: Wes Anderson does a lot of things very well, chief among them the creation of beautiful and meticulously created cinematic worlds. I can't imaging anything winning in this category over "The Grand Budapest Hotel."
Cinematography: They filmed Birdman in a style to look like it was all one continuous shot (much like Hitchcock's "Rope"). That creativity should be enough to allow Birdman's Emmanuel Lubezki to win this award for the second year in a row (he also won last year for "Gravity").
Costume Design: It's usually a safe bet to go with the movie that has the most corsets and giant historical dresses. This year we also have a lot of fantasy thrown in, with their own capes and giant dresses and horns to deal with. That makes this category a bit of a head-scratcher for me, and I'm down to either "The Grand Budapest Hotel" or "Into the Woods." Gosh I'm bad at this category. Okay, I'm going bellhop. Let's say "The Grand Budapest Hotel."
Film Editing: My go-to method for predicting this one is typically to choose the best picture winner, so why mess with something that's been working for me? I'll go with "Boyhood" here, not only because I think it will win best picture, but also because–can you IMAGINE how much footage they had to go through? Unreal.
Original Score: Gosh I loved Hans Zimmer's music for "Interstellar." Unfortunately all of the buzz in this category seems to be surrounding "The Theory of Everything," so I'm predicting a win for Jóhann Jóhannsson.
Original Song: This will probably be the only award of the night for "Selma."
Original Screenplay: On the other hand, it looks like this will end up being a pretty BIG night for "The Grand Budapest Hotel!"
Adapted Screenplay: There's a pretty interesting story on why "Whiplash" is listed in this category rather than Original Screenplay, which it is–even the Writer's Guild had it listed in their Original Screenplay category. Either way, I think it will still come out on top of its biggest competition, "The Imitation Game."
Sound Mixing: I think it's probably either "American Sniper" or "Interstellar," with "Whiplash" thrown in as a dark horse. Let's go with "American Sniper."
Sound Editing: Let's just say "American Sniper" again.
Documentary Feature: It looks like "Citizenfour" is the front-runner here, and who I am to argue with popular knowledge?
Documentary Short: I first read this one as "Chris Hotline," rather than "Crisis Hotline." I don't know what a Chris Hotline would do. Maybe connect you with famous guys named Chris, like Evans, Pratt, and Pine? (Note to self: look into setting up a Chris Hotline.) ANYWAY. Winner: "Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1."
Foreign Language Film: Poland's "Ida" is not only nominated in this category, but also in cinematography. Along with being a well-reviewed picture, this double nomination for a foreign film is a good indicator that "Ida" will take this win.
Animated Short: "Feast" was so creative and adorable. I hope it wins. If it doesn't, look for "The Dam Keeper" to be the one to stage an upset.
Live-Action Short: Obviously I am an expert in this category. Despite the fact that that is absolutely not true, I think "The Phone Call" will win.
*Upon further review, it seems that I am, in fact, wrong quite a lot of the time.
2 comments:
Outanding analysis as usual. Hope for Keaton as well. Saw Foxcatcher yesterday...wow, Tatum was very good and Carell was superb...you never knew what to expect from him or what his character was thinking.
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Last fall, one of my advisors gave a lecture on digital cinematography. He noted how for the last few years years, the oscar that has won for special effects has also won for cinematography. With the virtual camera at the forefront of academia's mind, it will be interesting to see if Hollywood thinks the same way. Frankly my dear, I don't think they give a damn.
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