(Previously: 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008.)
Best Picture: I've not had such a difficult time picking the Best Picture winner since... well, since last year. And I was wrong last year. But who's keeping track (nervous laugh)? Anyway, with apologies to all of the other nominees, I think this race comes down to "The Big Short," "Spotlight," and "The Revenant." But despite the critical love for "The Big Short," I just don't think this one is remarkable enough to take the top prize. That leaves "The Revenant" and "Spotlight," which is truly one of the best movies I've ever seen. If I was voting, Michael Keaton and his team would get to go up on stage to accept the award. Unfortunately, I think the tide has turned, and the votes are going to come down in favor of "The Revenant." Good job, Alejandro. Good job, Leo. Good job, bear.
Alejandro Innaritu! You are about to become only the third director ever to win back-to-back Oscars for Best Director! Sorry, George Miller. Better luck in another 30 years!
Best Actor: Okay, yes. After four fruitless nominations, this fifth should stick, as it is finally, FINALLY Leonardo DiCaprio's year. And we're all very happy for him. (Particularly Kate Winslet, which makes me tear up every time I think about their sweet friendship.) But if we're not careful, Matt Damon could soon be in the same boat: come Sunday he will have lost three times! So. Fair warning, Academy voters, of which doubtless scores of you are reading this. Don't let what happened to Leo happen to Matt! Anyway, the question now is this: is Leo winning because this is truly the greatest performance of the year? Or because OH JUST GIVE HIM ONE ALREADY, HE ATE A DEER CARCASS (or whatever it was)? Spoiler alert: it's probably the latter.
Best Actress: All things being equal, and every Oscar year being a clean slate, Cate Blanchett might actually be in the running for this award. But all things are NOT equal, and the Academy has a very good memory for anyone they've honored recently. And unfortunately for Cate, she's just won too recently to have a fighting chance this year (the same fate that's befallen Eddie Redmayne). All of this to say: Brie Larson will be the one to win. An Oscar for you, Brie Larson! You go, Brie Larson! (And none for Gretchen Weiners, bye!)
Best Supporting Actor: Sylvestor Stallone all but has this one in the bag. If somehow it doesn't go his way, though, look for one of the Marks (Ruffalo or Rylance) to steal it away.
Alicia Vikander is going to win. (Although let's be honest: she already won big when she starred in one of the best films of 2015, "The Man from Uncle," amiright?)
Animated Feature: I don't believe there's a universe where "Inside Out" doesn't win. But if something strange happens with time and space and Pixar DOESN'T scoop up this award, I suppose "Anomalisa" could possibly upset.
Production Design: I think this one probably comes down to "Mad Max: Fury Road" or "The Revenant," not that I believe "The Martian" is any less deserving. In the end, however, my money is on "Mad Max."
Cinematography: "The Revenant" being shot all in natural light makes a pretty good case for it to win for Best Cinematography (along with, I'm sure, plenty of other... technical... cinematographical... reasons). Interesting side fact: this will be Emmanuel Lubezki's third straight win in this category!
–particularly those worn by Cate Blanchett's character. However, it's facing stiff competition from both "Mad Max" and "Carol." At the end of the day, I think we'll be seeing a win for the innovative designs of "Mad Max."
Film Editing: Conventional wisdom would have me pick the Best Picture to win in this category as well. But with the Best Picture category so up in the air this year, conventional wisdom is in shambles. Look for "Mad Max" to pick up yet another award here.
Makeup and Hairstyling: Tra la la, "Mad Max" again. Sigh.
Original Score: Man, wouldn't it be great to see John Williams win for "Star Wars: The Force Awakens"? (Would that make Lin-Manuel Miranda a winner by extension?) Too bad, though. Ennio Morricone will be winning for "The Hateful Eight." (Likely that film's only award of the evening.)
Original Song: 2016 is off to quite a start for Lady Gaga! First she won a Golden Globe for her work in "American Horror Story," and as of Sunday night she'll also be an Oscar winner for her song from the movie "The Hunting Ground."
Spotlight" wins this one!
Adapted Screenplay: To me, this field seems wide open; any of these movies could win! And while it would be so wonderful to see the lovely "Brooklyn" scoop this one up, I think it's going to "The Big Short."
Sound Mixing: Honestly? I have no idea. Probably either "The Revenant" or "Mad Max"? I guess? Sure, "Mad Max." HAVE ANOTHER.
Sound Editing: See above. "Mad Max."
Documentary Feature: Once in love with "Amy," always in love with Amy!
Documentary Short: Dang. These categories could not be more difficult to predict, and I won't pretend to have ever heard of these films! It's a total crapshoot, and crap... I'm going with "A Girl in the River."
Foreign Language Film: Some years you hear buzz about some of the Foreign Language Films, but this year? I've never heard of any of these titles. Whoops. Well, apparently Academy voters were pretty enamoured of "Son of Saul," so I'd imagine that's the big winner!
Sanjay's Super Team."
Live Action Short: Frankly, my dear... I have no idea. But the Academy seems to like to pick more serious fair, so with a short about war on the list, I think I'll go with "Shok."
*Oh, what's that, Bob? I'm wrong all the time? Got it!