16th Annual Oscar Picks

Grab your googly eyes and throw some confetti in the air—it's Oscar prediction time! If you're looking for totally and completely correct predictions in all 23 Oscar categories, you've come to the right place. Because I never get it wrong.*

(Previously: 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015,  2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008.)

Best Picture: "All Quiet on the Western Front" is pushing hard, and "The Fabelmans," "Tar," and even "Top Gun: Maverick" all have a fighting shot at the top prize. But with big wins at all major guild ceremonies (Screen Actors Guild, Writers Guild, Producers Guild, etc.), I just don't see anybody but "Everything Everywhere All At Once" going home with this award. (Rightfully so! I'd hand the Daniels the gold for the scene with those two rocks alone.)

Best Director: You may think he already has too many awards in this category already, but believe it or not, Steven Spielberg hasn't won the Best Director prize since 1998's "Saving Private Ryan"—TWENTY-FIVE YEARS AGO. So while there's more than a solid chance the Daniels will grab this one, I think the Academy will find a way to honor "The Fabelmans" with a win in this category.

Best Actor: The only surprise here will be if someone besides Brendan Fraser or Austin Butler wins. And as cool as it would be to see Fraser's "comeback" continue with a win on Sunday, I'm giving the edge to Austin Butler.

Best Actress: The only surprise here will be if someone besides Cate Blanchett or Michelle Yeoh wins. And just like above, although I would love to call this one for Yeoh, I think Cate Blanchett is an unstoppable force.

Best Supporting Actor: I suppose there's a parallel universe out there where someone other than Ke Huy Quan wins this one. But it's not ours! Grab your fanny pack and get your speech ready, Ke—you're up!

Best Supporting Actress: Man, talk about a toss-up. Sometimes this category is all sewn up (like last year with our queen, Ariana DeBose), but this time around it's truly anyone's guess! I want to say Stephanie Hsu because she's phenomenal (and also because I like bragging that I saw her on Broadway in "Be More Chill" back in 2019), but Jamie Lee Curtis, Angela Bassett, and Kerry Condon seem to have the best chances here. It's truly anyone's guess, and mine is Angela Bassett.

Animated Feature: As fantastic as all of these nominees are, I think this one belongs to "Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio."

Production Design: Man—talk about a stacked category! It's definitely possible "Babylon" or "All Quiet on the Western Front" could sneak in here, but I don't think it's wise to count a Baz Luhrmann movie out in this category. So I'm going with "Elvis!"

Cinematography: I think this one will either go to "All Quiet on the Western Front" or "Elvis," and it's difficult to predict which direction the Academy will lean. "AQotWF" has picked up several precursor awards for this category, though, so while I wouldn't be at all surprised to see "Elvis" grab this one, I'm still going with "All Quiet on the Western Front."

Costume Design: Right this way, Mr. Presley—"Elvis" has this one in the bag.

Film Editing: It's possible that "Top Gun: Maverick" scoops this one up, but I tend to like to go with my Best Picture pick, so my money's on "Everything Everywhere All at Once."

Makeup and Hairstyling: I could pretend to be waffling between a couple of these, but come on. It's gonna be "The Whale."

Original Score: Okay NOW I'm waffling. (And I want waffles.) It's down to "The Fabelmans," "Babylon," and "All Quiet on the Western Front" for me—although I suppose "Everything Everywhere" could grab this as well. (Or even "Banshees," wow! I didn't realize Carter Burwell composed that one!) Man this is tough. With minimal confidence and pretty much only a gut feeling to go on, I'm picking "All Quiet on the Western Front." (Although I would be delighted to hear John Williams' name being called for "The Fabelmans" come Sunday!)

Original Song: I know it's not wise to bet against Rihanna or Lady Gaga. But I'm going to—I'm picking Naatu Naatu from "RRR." 

Original Screenplay: "Everything Everywhere All at Once" is so creative and inventive and well crafted, I have to believe it's going to win this award.

Adapted Screenplay: A lot of people seem to think this one will go to "Women Talking," but I just can't envision it happening. Plan on seeing "All Quiet on the Western Front" pick this one up too.

Sound: While this could be another category clinched by "All Quiet on the Western Front," I think the Academy will be looking for ways to give a nod to "Top Gun: Maverick." So in a tight race, I'm giving the edge to "Top Gun: Maverick."

Visual Effects: I can't imagine "Avatar: The Way of Water" not winning this one. This is probably THE lock of the night.

Documentary Feature: Truly, truly I say to you: I have never heard of ANY of these movies. (Some film fan I am!) But most prognosticators seem to think it's gonna be "Navalny," and I'm a very agreeable person (obviously), so I'm checking that box as well!

Documentary Short: This could very well go to "Stranger at the Gate," but if I learned anything from "My Octopus Teacher," it's to never count an animal film out. I'm going with "The Elephant Whisperers."

International Feature Film: Just going to pause here and acknowledge once again how insane it is that "RRR" was not nominated in this category. So without that competition, the way is clear for "All Quiet on the Western Front," a very deserving film.

Animated Short: My very informed and uh... confident... prediction is that the winner will be... "The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse."

Live Action Short: It looks to me to be down to "An Irish Goodbye," "The Red Suitcase," and "Le Pupill." "An Irish Goodbye" won the BAFTA, so I'm going with that one!

*Hey so... I don't know how to tell you this, but... I actually do get it wrong pretty frequently. Like, a lot a lot. I'm sorry I lied. I'll work on it.