19th Annual Oscar Picks

Your favorite time of year has arrived! Yes, the Oscars, but more importantly: Valerie's Oscar PREDICTIONS! I won't make you wait any longer. All 24 of my completely correct (because we all know I'm never wrong*) picks are below, so grab your beanie, your sunglasses, and your plaid robe, and let's go!

(Previously: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015,  2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008.) 

Best Picture: While there's a world where "Hamnet" could pull out the win (it did take home Best Drama at the Golden Globes, I think this is really just a two-person race: it's down to "One Battle After Another" and "Sinners." Both are worthy recipients, and both have racked up several of the prerequisite award indicators. And while "Sinners" has been building up steam in recent weeks, I don't think it's enough to take down "One Battle After Another," which will be the ultimate winner come Oscar night.

Best Director: Even if "Sinners" does win, I don't think this is Ryan Coogler's year. This prize almost assuredly has Paul Thomas Anderson's name already engraved on it, for directing "One Battle After Another." This is his fourth time being nominated, and I think most of the Academy sees him as being overdue for this honor!

Best Actor: Listen, this was Timmy's award to lose. And I fear he might have. I really thought he had this one sewn up, but you kind of get the sense that voters are getting tired of his campaign, and there definitely seems to be a late surge in support for Michael B. Jordan. It could still happen for Chalamet, but you know what? I'm picking this one for Michael B. Jordan. Go Lions. 

Best Actress: It will be the shock of a lifetime if Jessie Buckley doesn't win for her transformative performance in "Hamnet." The gold's going home with her on Oscar night!

Best Supporting Actor: I'd honestly love to see Stellan Skarsgård up on the stage accepting this award, but I don't think it's his year. Instead, I think it'll be Academy favorite Sean Penn (love him or hate him, the man already owns two Oscars) for his bone-chilling performance in "One Battle After Another."

Best Supporting Actress: I came VERY close to calling this category for Amy Madigan, especially after her big win at the Actor Awards. But you know who else won that award? Demi Moore. And she didn't end up winning the Oscar. (Which was embarrassing. For me personally.) Add in the fact that the Academy historically gives the cold shoulder to horror films (plus it's the ONLY nomination for "Weapons," which makes me think voters don't love it enough), and I'm coming away thinking this statuette's not necessarily hers. Instead, I'm going with Teyana Taylor, who did so much with her limited screen time in "One Battle" that I don't think the Academy will be able to ignore her. 

Animated Feature: I don't mean to sound too sure... except I totally am. This one's going to "K-Pop Demon Hunters!" It's insanely popular, original, and has already won a pile of awards on its road to the Dolby Theatre. This one belongs to Rumi and the gang!

Production Design: When you have something as artistic and gothic as "Frankenstein" on the ballot, it's really hard to go with anything else. So I won't.

Cinematography: It's looking like another tight race between "One Battle After Another" and "Sinners." But when I personally think back on my viewing experience of those two movies, I really do find "Sinners" to be more memorable in this area. Plus, if "Sinners" cinematographer Autumn Durald Arkapaw wins, she will be the FIRST! WOMAN! EVER! to win in this category. So I can't not pick her. "Sinners" it is!

Film Editing: I know I say this every year, but I like to opt for my Best Picture pick in this category. So mostly for that reason, I'm going with "One Battle After Another!"

Casting: And here we have a BRAND-NEW category! Look at her: so beautiful and shiny. This one is a little tricky to try to predict, mostly because we don't have any history to go on! So I'm just going to lean toward what I know: the "Marty Supreme" team compiled an impressive list of professional actors, random faces they spotted in YouTube videos or on the street, and that one guy from Shark Tank. I think Marty's got this one locked down!

Makeup and Hairstyling: I almost feel the MOST confident in this category: it's for sure going to be "Frankenstein."  

Costume Design: Okay, I have to be honest: I love this category! It's one of my favorites to dig into and try to predict, so I'm really happy to spend time time thinking about the winner for Best Costume Design. Immediately I'm zeroing in on "Frankenstein" and "Hamnet." The Academy tends to love old, sumptious costumes—the more fabrics the better. So we find ourselves in a corset vs. corset race! But as you saw above, voters may be leaning "Frankenstein" come Oscar night, so I think I will too. 

Original Score: You know what else the Academy loves? Ludwig Göransson. I think the love affair continues this year, as they'll award him his third Oscar, this time for "Sinners."

Original Song: They can't give it to Diane Warren, right? And ruin the best running joke in Oscars history? The possibility of her winning after SIXTEEN losses... I won't hear it and I won't respond to it. Anyway, I feel like "I Lied to You" from "Sinners" probably should win, but it'd hard to imagine anything but "K-Pop Demon Hunters'" "Golden" winning here.

Original Screenplay: I think it would be crazy to pick anything but "Sinners" here.

Adapted Screenplay: I think it would be crazy to pick anything but "One Battle After Another" here.

Sound: Similar to the way "Best Editing" conversations typically surround those movies with the MOST editing, I think voters here will go for the movie with the MOST sound, which in this case would be "F1." 

Visual Effects: I feel like voters won't even bother seeing all of the nominees in this category? Or really thinking too long about it at all? It seems likely that most of them will just see the title "Avatar: Fire & Ash," tick that box, and then movie on to the next one. (Cynical? Maybe. Accurate? TBD.)

Documentary Feature: "The Perfect Neighbor" was so raw, real, and original, and it had a LOT of buzz when it first debuted. I think between that originality and popularity, "The Perfect Neighbor" will run away with this award.

Documentary Short: Last year I made my pick here based almost entirely on the title. I can't do that this year, because they just ALL seem SO DEPRESSING and BLEAK, oh my gosh! Just give it to all of them already! I'm just going to have to wipe the years off my keyboard and go with the masses: I think it'll be "All the Empty Rooms." 

International Feature Film: "The Secret Agent" has a very real chance of winning here! Brazil could pull a repeat of last year and take home the gold here, and I wouldn't be TOTALLY shocked to see that happen. However, I think the more likely scenario is "Sentimental Value" being the big winner. It has a ton of other nominations, including Best Picture, so I feel like this is kind of theirs to lose!

Live Action Short: It's looking like this one could go to "Two People Exchanging Saliva," but I watched the trailers for both this one and "A Friend of Dorothy," and the latter made me tear up. I'd like to think the Academy is going to reward the sweeter, gentler option of the two, so I'm going with "A Friend of Dorothy."   

Animated Short: My money is on "Butterfly." (But not real, money, of course. Those little plastic coins that come in kids' play purses.)

*Actually, studies show that this is a 100% inaccurate statement. We apologize for the inconvenience. Visit your point of sale for a refund on your blog reading fee. 

18th Annual Oscar Picks

I'm a lot of things: Cinephile. Procrastinator. Oscars prognosticator. One thing I'm not? Is EVER wrong.*

(Previously: 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015,  2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008.) 

Best Picture: I would be shocked if "Wicked," "A Complete Unknown," "Dune: Part Two," "The Substance," or "I'm Still Here," were announced as the winner of Best Picture this year. I'd be slightly less shocked, but still surprised, if it were to be "The Nickel Boys" or "Anora." So that leaves me with "Conclave," "The Brutalist," and "Emilia Perez." Early on the tides seemed to be turning in favor of "Emilia Perez," but I think its fervor has cooled considerably as of late. I think "The Brutalist" has a solid shot of taking it, but I've just got to go with my gut here: I think it's going to be "Conclave."

Best Director: I'm not betting against the Director's Guild on this one! My money's on Sean Baker.

Best Actor: It's been funny to watch this award jump to different recipients in this category all season long, which means this one is really up in the air. If it goes to Timothee Chalamet, he'll be the youngest winner ever. If it goes to Adrien Brody, it'll go to the CURRENT holder of the record. Either way, I think it'll be one of them, and in the end I'm leaning Brody.

Best Actress: Here we have another split category, this one between Demi Moore and Mikey Madison. However, I think the Academy will look to honor an older veteran of the industry, so I'm betting on Moore. 

Best Supporting Actor: Here we have this year's LOCK: it's gonna be the charming Kieran Culkin for "A Real Pain."

Best Supporting Actress: There's a chance Isabella Rosellini sneaks in here and takes it, but Zoe Saldaña has been winning all season, and I don't see that stopping now! (Our baby ballerina's all grown up!)

Animated Feature: The tea is that I wouldn't be surprised to see basically any of these films win. It's hard to bet against Pixar or the "Wallace & Gromit" crew, and "Flow" certainly seems to be a favorite! However, "The Wild Robot" seems to have a lot of heat behind it coming into Sunday's ceremony, so I'm going with Lupita and co this time.

Production Design: I don't feel SUPER strongly one way or the other, but I really think this might be "Wicked's" to lose.

Cinematography: I'm torn between "The Brutalist" and "Dune: Part Two" here. While I think most are going with "The Brutalist," I've gotta give my vote to "Dune: Part Two." Typically the Academy goes for the MOST in these types of categories, and with Dune, I think they'll have those black and white scenes in mind and tick the box next to Greig Fraser's name.

Film Editing: I don't like to vote against my own Best Picture pick, so I'm going with "Conclave" here! 

Costume Design: I said this a few years ago when Paul Tazewell was up for this award for "West Side Story" (which unfortunately he didn't win), BUT if he wins this year? He'll be the first Black man to take home the Oscar in this category! How cool is that? All that being said, I really do think this is another opportunity for "Wicked" to float straight to the stage in its bubble!

Makeup and Hairstyling: Sorry, Green Girl. Although "Wicked" technically, sorta, kinda has a shot to win this one, I really really think it's going to be "The Substance."

Original Score: It absolutely BLOWS MY MIND that "Challengers" isn't nominated in this category. It's absolutely bonkers that the movie that won this category at the Golden Globes was completely shut out for the Oscars! I just truly do not understand it. Anyway. To me there are no front runners here, as I haven't heard ANYTHING about the music in these movies. That being said, I listened to a few overtures and think that "The Brutalist" may be just striking enough to take home the prize.

Original Song: "El Mal" from "Emilia Perez" has been winning this category a lot, including the Globes and the Critic's Choice Awards, so I think they're likely to win here too. 

Original Screenplay: I may end up being wrong picking "Conclave" over "Anora" for Best Picture, but I'm counting out the latter here. I'm checking the "Anora" box for Best Original Screenplay.

Adapted Screenplay: Okay but I AM picking "Conclave" for this one as well. Get on the pope train, y'all!

Sound: This one's for you, Dune-heads. Just like a few years ago with Part 1, "Dune: Part Two" is going to win Best Sound!

Visual Effects: Looking at these nominees (including "A Better Man," "Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes," and yes, even "Wicked"), you gotta think these voters must really be into CGI monkeys! However—and this might be bananas—but I think all those monkeys might split the vote. I'm going with "Dune: Part Two."

Documentary Feature: I just don't think there's any way it's not "No Other Land."

Documentary Short: Based almost entirely on the title alone, I am picking "I Am Ready, Warden."

International Feature Film: There's a chance "I'm Still Here," sneaks in and grabs this one, but "Emilia Perez" has been pretty unstoppable this awards season, so I'll go with that one.

Animated Short: "Wander to Wonder" looks adorable, and while I probably shouldn't pick it mostly because of that? I'm gonna.

Live Action Short:  The gold is going home with "The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent."

*More like "The Girl Who Could Not Stop From Being Wrong!"
 

17th Annual Oscar Picks

You might have thought I was gone, never to post Oscar predictions again. But much like Josh Hartnett in "Oppenheimer," I am BACK! Predicting the correct winners in all 23 categories. And—also like Josh Hartnett—I am always 100% right.* 

(Previously: 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015,  2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008.)

Best Picture: It's an upside down world, where up is down and boy bands play instruments: a Christopher Nolan film is going to win the top honor at the Academy Awards! As a longtime Chris Nolan girlie, I couldn't be more pleased for him—"Oppenheimer" is gonna win Best Picture! 

Best Director: And the gold won't stop there... Christopher Nolan will hear his named called in this category as well! Oppenhomies, we ride at dawn.

Best Actor: I am fairly confident, though not certain, that Cillian Murphy will take this one home. His portrayal of J. Robert Oppenheimer was masterful and haunting and cerebral, and he deserves to get the gold. If it's not him, look for Paul Giamatti to be the one to swoop in and take it.

Best Actress: Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone are in a virtual dead heat here. There's a part of me that thinks it really might be Emma, but I'm going with Lily Gladstone.

Best Supporting Actor: I'm just going to get this out of the way real, real quick: Charles Melton's name should be here in this category. (Side note: I'm a firm believer that if you think someone's been snubbed, you've gotta say who you think should come out of the list instead. So, sorry Sterling K. Brown—I think they should have given this spot to Charles over you.) But anyway, the winner will be Robert Downey Jr.

Best Supporting Actress: Da’Vine Joy Randolph was absolutely BRILLIANT in "The Holdovers." If it can't be Rachel McAdams for "Are You There, God? It's Me Margaret," I'm happy it'll be Da'Vine.

Animated Feature: I think there's a world where "The Boy and the Heron" wins because of the film community's love for Hayao Miyazaki. However, when I close my eyes and picture this category's envelope being opened on Sunday, I can only imagine hearing Anya Taylor-Joy or Dwayne Johnson or whoever saying "Spider-Man: Across the Spider-verse."

Production Design: The production design for "Barbie" is truly incredible—if you haven't seen the behind-the-scenes walk-throughs of the sets, you've gotta seek those out. However, I think the team behind "Poor Things" will nab this one.

Cinematography: I think "Oppenheimer" will win this one, and I'm not mad about that, but man if "Killers of the Flower Moon" doesn't feel equally deserving. Tough category. 

Costume Design: History tells me to pick the quirky historical costumes from "Poor Things." My heart tells me to go for "Barbie."

Film Editing: I'm between "Oppenheimer" and "Killers of the Flower Moon" on this one, but when in doubt, the tie goes to the runner—aka the Best Picture winner. "Oppenheimer" it is!

Makeup and Hairstyling: First of all, JAIL to the Academy members who failed to nominate "Barbie" in this category. They toned my girl Margot's hair on the DAILY to make sure her locks were the perfect shade of blonde for her costume. Every! Day! Sigh. Anyway. I guess it could be "Maestro," but there doesn't seem to be a lot of passion for that film as a whole, so I'm picking "Poor Things" here.

Original Score: My jaw will be on the FLOOR if anything other than "Oppenheimer" wins this category. 

Original Song: Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell have this one in the bag for "What Was I Made For?"—the duo's second win in this category in two years after 2022's "No Time to Die!"

Original Screenplay: This category could be where the Academy shows "Past Lives" some love. I also wouldn't be surprised to see Alexander Payne pick up his third Oscar for best screenplay, this time for "The Holdovers." But if I have to pick just one (and clearly I do), I'm going with "Anatomy of a Fall."

Adapted Screenplay: There's a lot of love for "American Fiction" in this category, but don't count out Christopher Nolan and his adaptation of a 700-page tome. I've gotta pick "Oppenheimer" here.

Sound: Another one for "Oppenheimer!" You go, "Oppenheimer."

Visual Effects: Without an "Avatar" or a "Dune" in this category, it kind of feels like anyone's game. There's a ton of stacked talent here, without a real heavyweight to pull all the votes. That being said, I can't shake the feeling that it's going to be "The Creator."

Documentary Feature: "20 Days in Mariupol" is about Russia's attack on Ukraine, and I can't see voters picking something else over that one.

Documentary Short: The choice here seems to be coming down to a film about book banning, and a film about a repair shop for kids' instruments. So tough! But I think the latter will have a bigger impact on voters, so I'll go with "The Last Repair Shop." 

International Feature Film: I'm feelin' REAL confident with this one, so please don't embarrass me, Academy! It's "The Zone of Interest."

Animated Short: Did I pick "Letter to a Pig" based solely on the title? I didn't NOT do that...

Live Action Short: Netflix has been pushing "The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar" hard, and the industry loves them some Wes Anderson, so I'm inclined to think they'll give him the gold here.

*Okay, so I'm not ALWAYS right. But I'm ALWAYS in love with Josh Hartnett, and that's the truth.

16th Annual Oscar Picks

Grab your googly eyes and throw some confetti in the air—it's Oscar prediction time! If you're looking for totally and completely correct predictions in all 23 Oscar categories, you've come to the right place. Because I never get it wrong.*

(Previously: 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015,  2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008.)

Best Picture: "All Quiet on the Western Front" is pushing hard, and "The Fabelmans," "Tar," and even "Top Gun: Maverick" all have a fighting shot at the top prize. But with big wins at all major guild ceremonies (Screen Actors Guild, Writers Guild, Producers Guild, etc.), I just don't see anybody but "Everything Everywhere All At Once" going home with this award. (Rightfully so! I'd hand the Daniels the gold for the scene with those two rocks alone.)

Best Director: You may think he already has too many awards in this category already, but believe it or not, Steven Spielberg hasn't won the Best Director prize since 1998's "Saving Private Ryan"—TWENTY-FIVE YEARS AGO. So while there's more than a solid chance the Daniels will grab this one, I think the Academy will find a way to honor "The Fabelmans" with a win in this category.

Best Actor: The only surprise here will be if someone besides Brendan Fraser or Austin Butler wins. And as cool as it would be to see Fraser's "comeback" continue with a win on Sunday, I'm giving the edge to Austin Butler.

Best Actress: The only surprise here will be if someone besides Cate Blanchett or Michelle Yeoh wins. And just like above, although I would love to call this one for Yeoh, I think Cate Blanchett is an unstoppable force.

Best Supporting Actor: I suppose there's a parallel universe out there where someone other than Ke Huy Quan wins this one. But it's not ours! Grab your fanny pack and get your speech ready, Ke—you're up!

Best Supporting Actress: Man, talk about a toss-up. Sometimes this category is all sewn up (like last year with our queen, Ariana DeBose), but this time around it's truly anyone's guess! I want to say Stephanie Hsu because she's phenomenal (and also because I like bragging that I saw her on Broadway in "Be More Chill" back in 2019), but Jamie Lee Curtis, Angela Bassett, and Kerry Condon seem to have the best chances here. It's truly anyone's guess, and mine is Angela Bassett.

Animated Feature: As fantastic as all of these nominees are, I think this one belongs to "Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio."

Production Design: Man—talk about a stacked category! It's definitely possible "Babylon" or "All Quiet on the Western Front" could sneak in here, but I don't think it's wise to count a Baz Luhrmann movie out in this category. So I'm going with "Elvis!"

Cinematography: I think this one will either go to "All Quiet on the Western Front" or "Elvis," and it's difficult to predict which direction the Academy will lean. "AQotWF" has picked up several precursor awards for this category, though, so while I wouldn't be at all surprised to see "Elvis" grab this one, I'm still going with "All Quiet on the Western Front."

Costume Design: Right this way, Mr. Presley—"Elvis" has this one in the bag.

Film Editing: It's possible that "Top Gun: Maverick" scoops this one up, but I tend to like to go with my Best Picture pick, so my money's on "Everything Everywhere All at Once."

Makeup and Hairstyling: I could pretend to be waffling between a couple of these, but come on. It's gonna be "The Whale."

Original Score: Okay NOW I'm waffling. (And I want waffles.) It's down to "The Fabelmans," "Babylon," and "All Quiet on the Western Front" for me—although I suppose "Everything Everywhere" could grab this as well. (Or even "Banshees," wow! I didn't realize Carter Burwell composed that one!) Man this is tough. With minimal confidence and pretty much only a gut feeling to go on, I'm picking "All Quiet on the Western Front." (Although I would be delighted to hear John Williams' name being called for "The Fabelmans" come Sunday!)

Original Song: I know it's not wise to bet against Rihanna or Lady Gaga. But I'm going to—I'm picking Naatu Naatu from "RRR." 

Original Screenplay: "Everything Everywhere All at Once" is so creative and inventive and well crafted, I have to believe it's going to win this award.

Adapted Screenplay: A lot of people seem to think this one will go to "Women Talking," but I just can't envision it happening. Plan on seeing "All Quiet on the Western Front" pick this one up too.

Sound: While this could be another category clinched by "All Quiet on the Western Front," I think the Academy will be looking for ways to give a nod to "Top Gun: Maverick." So in a tight race, I'm giving the edge to "Top Gun: Maverick."

Visual Effects: I can't imagine "Avatar: The Way of Water" not winning this one. This is probably THE lock of the night.

Documentary Feature: Truly, truly I say to you: I have never heard of ANY of these movies. (Some film fan I am!) But most prognosticators seem to think it's gonna be "Navalny," and I'm a very agreeable person (obviously), so I'm checking that box as well!

Documentary Short: This could very well go to "Stranger at the Gate," but if I learned anything from "My Octopus Teacher," it's to never count an animal film out. I'm going with "The Elephant Whisperers."

International Feature Film: Just going to pause here and acknowledge once again how insane it is that "RRR" was not nominated in this category. So without that competition, the way is clear for "All Quiet on the Western Front," a very deserving film.

Animated Short: My very informed and uh... confident... prediction is that the winner will be... "The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse."

Live Action Short: It looks to me to be down to "An Irish Goodbye," "The Red Suitcase," and "Le Pupill." "An Irish Goodbye" won the BAFTA, so I'm going with that one!

*Hey so... I don't know how to tell you this, but... I actually do get it wrong pretty frequently. Like, a lot a lot. I'm sorry I lied. I'll work on it.

15th Annual Oscar Picks

If I were an Academy voter, I'd be ticking the box next to "West Side Story" all the way down the ballot. Unfortunately they still haven't invited me to be a member (crazy, right?), so it's not up to me. Instead, these are my predictions of what I think Academy voters will do. And I know I'm 100% right, as I have never been wrong before. What's that like?*

(Previously: 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015,  2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008.)

 

Best Picture: For the longest time, all anyone was predicting for this category was "The Power of the Dog." Then "CODA" won the SAG and the PGA, and the tide turned its favor: everyone seems to be forecasting a "CODA" win. But I've got to go with my gut—I'm sticking with "The Power of the Dog." It's got a pile of awards on its side, plus a slew of the right Oscar nominations like director and editing, and I just don't think it's enough for "CODA" to overcome. (Side note: if anything other than those two wins, I will be truly shocked.)

Best Director: I'm pairing this category with Best Picture: I think it's going to Jane Campion. What's cool is that a win for Campion would mean back-to-back female winners in this category after Chloe Zhao's took home the prize last year!

Best Actor: The name I wish I was writing here: Andrew Garfield for "tick, tick...BOOM!" The name I am writing: Will Smith.

Best Actress: This is the rare category where almost anyone could walk away with the prize. It makes it super tough to predict, but I think Jessica Chastain might finally pull out a win after two previous nominations.

Best Supporting Actor: I mean, the SHOCK I will feel if anybody but Troy Kotsur gets this one. I will be ON THE FLOOR.

Best Supporting Actress: Let's hear it for our girl, Ariana DeBose! She has danced her way through this awards season scooping up every prize on her way to the Oscars, and I can't wait to see her smiling face shining on the stage of the Dolby Theatre.

Animated Feature: Listen, this one may very well go to "Encanto." Which is... fine. But I just don't see how a kind of lackluster film (granted, with great songs) gets more love than the supremely well-crafted and insanely creative "The Mitchells vs the Machines." I'm praying for an 11th hour miracle and hoping the Academy shows up for the Mitchell family. 

Production Design: I kind of want to be controversial and pick "West Side Story" or "Nightmare Alley." But—despite how not great I may be doing so far—I actually want to pick the most winners. And in this case, the winds seem to be blowing in the direction of "Dune."

Cinematography: There are a few indicators out there that point to a win for "Power of the Dog," but the American Society of Cinematographers gave their top prize to "Dune." So I think it'll be "Dune."

Costume Design: If Paul Tazwell were to win for "West Side Story" (which I think would definitely be deserved), he would be the first Black male to win in this category! But "Cruella" has this one in the bag.

Film Editing: Feels like it could really be anyone! (Wouldn't it be cool if it was "tick, tick...BOOM!" though?) I kind of think it comes down to "Power of the Dog" and "Dune," though, so eeny, meeny, miny, "Dune."

Makeup and Hairstyling: I won't be surprised if "Cruella" picks this one up, but I'm putting my fictional money behind "The Eyes of Tammy Faye."

Original Score: If there's a lock on this ballot, it's gotta be "Dune" winning Best Score, right?

Original Song: I think it's more than possible that Billie Eilish will scoop this one up for "No Time to Die." But I can't shake the feeling that Academy voters will be looking for a way to award the whole "Encanto" soundtrack (most notably "We Don't Talk About Bruno") when they select "Dos Oruguitas" to win this category, so let's go with "Encanto."

Original Screenplay: This will probably the only award of the evening that "Belfast" goes home with.

Adapted Screenplay: It's a showdown between the two top Best Picture contenders—if it's not "CODA" it'll be "The Power of the Dog."

Sound: It's gotta be "Dune," right? I feel pretty comfortable saying no other movie has a chance here.

Visual Effects: I don't think the Academy is ready to give Marvel the gold in this category, so count on "Dune" grabbing this one too.

Documentary Feature: It's going to be fun seeing Questlove accept the award for "Summer of Soul!"

Documentary Short: We're going with "The Queen of Basketball" for this one, folks!

International Feature Film:  I can't envision a future where "Drive My Car" doesn't win here.

Animated Short: "Robin Robin" is the only one of the nominees I've even heard of, and it seems to have some steam behind it, so that's going to be my pick!

Live Action Short:  This is me spinning a giant wheel with all five potential winners on it and landing on... "The Long Goodbye!"

*For legal reasons, this is a joke.

14th Annual Oscar Picks

It's been a weird year for movies, and it very well may also be a weird Oscars ceremony. But that doesn't mean we can't celebrate films! Or that I can't make correct predictions in every single category, as I do every year.*

(Previously: 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015,  2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008.)

Best Picture: As always, I think this is pretty much anybody's game—particularly "Nomadland," "The Trial of the Chicago 7," and "Minari." However, with a whole pile of wins in various awards show's best picture categories, I'm calling this one for "Nomadland."

Best Director: This category doesn't always go to the Best Picture winner—but I think it will this year. Count on Chloe Zhao to be the second woman to ever win Best Director!

Best Actor: If ever there were a lock, it's this one. Chadwick Boseman is sure to win a posthumous Oscar for his performance in "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom." Bless you, Chadwick.

Best Actress: This one feels a little bit like a toss-up to me. I really think anyone in this category could pull off a win—well, except for Vanessa Kirby. (But you're lovely, Vanessa! I'm sure your time will come!) I think it's actually going to come down to Frances, Viola, and Andra, and in the end I'm putting all my (fake) money on Viola Davis.

Best Supporting Actor: We could potentially see an upset here, but ultimately all the signs are pointing to a win for Daniel Kaluuya for his performance in "Judas and the Black Messiah."

Best Supporting Actress: A category I don't feel confident about: this one. It's coming down to Youn Yuh-jung and Maria Bakalova for two films at opposite ends of the spectrum ("Minari" and "Borat"), but in the end I'm going with sweet Youn Yuh-jung.

Animated Feature: Look, TECHNICALLY anything is possible. But not any film other than "Soul" walking away with this award.

Production Design: "Mank" has a lot going for it in this category, chiefly its old Hollywood aesthetic that Academy voters won't be able to resist.

Cinematography: Who will reign supreme in the world of cinematography: the sweeping vistas of "Nomadland," or the black and white artistry of "Mank?" I wish I could pick two—maybe there'll be a tie! (hey, it could happen!)—but in the end I'm going with "Nomadland."

Costume Design: It's hard to imagine a Regency-era film like "Emma" not taking home Best Costumes, but it's really looking like "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom" is the one to beat.

Film Editing: When all else fails, I like to predict the Best Picture winner to also win this category, so it's entirely possible "Nomadland" could win here as well. However, the addition of actual archival footage woven into "The Trial of the Chicago 7" means I believe they're going to win this category.

Makeup and Hairstyling: Okay, it's really hard not to pick "Hillbilly Elegy" here, because did you see the transformation they pulled off for Glenn Close? Insane. But I don't think it's "Hillbilly Elegy's" night. (Do you think Academy members are too embarrassed that people might find out they voted for that movie in ANY category to actually check that box?) Instead, "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom" will almost certainly take this one home.

Original Score: An animated film hasn't taken home the award for Best Score since 2009's "Up," which we all know is one of my all-time faves (movies and scores). This year Pixar will make a return trip up to the stage for this category when they win for "Soul's" breathtaking music.

Original Song: Listen. I actually, genuinely think the song "Husavik" from "Eurovision" is truly, unironically good. And it's entirely possible that it could win. (Seriously.) However, we've all heard Leslie Odom Jr. sing, and I don't know how they can vote for anyone else. "One Night in Miami" will win its only award of the night for "Speak Now."

Original Screenplay: I wouldn't be at all shocked if Aaron Sorkin were to win for "The Trial of the Chicago 7"—he is a master, after all. But I think the Academy will want to honor "Promising Young Woman" in some way, so look for their support to show up in this category.

Adapted Screenplay: I can't bring myself to predict a win for "Borat" here, I just can't—despite what some prognosticators are saying. Others think it will be "The Father," but I think "Nomadland" will get the gold here. 

Sound: They finally, finally combined the two sound categories of years past (editing and mixing) into one and lo, there was much rejoicing. No shade to the sound professionals, it just made predicting difficult! That being said, I think we'll all be shocked if "Sound of Metal" doesn't take this one home.

Visual Effects: Honestly, "Tenet" should be up for more categories. There, I said it. But the important part is actually winning, and I think "Tenet" will win for Visual Effects.

Documentary Feature: This category is weirdly giving me a lot of trouble. I keep trying to visualize the moment they open the envelope—will they say "Time," or will they say "My Octopus Teacher?" Wait a minute, wait a minute, wait a minute, I've got it: it's going to "Time."

Documentary Short: Ah yes, everyone's favorite category. I'm ticking the box next to "A Love Song For Latasha" for this one.

International Feature Film:  This will probably go to "Another Round." Probably.

Animated Short: I've heard so much about "If Anything Happens I Love You" this year, it's hard to imagine anything else winning.

Live Action Short: Sorry, just gotta pick between "The Letter Room" and "Two Distant Strangers" real quick. Eeny, meeny, miny... "Two Distant Strangers."

 

*Here's the thing: that's just not true. And I'm sorry I lied. I'm so sorry.

13th Annual Oscar Picks

Lucky number 13! I think that clearly means that THIS is the year I'll DEFINITELY get every category correct! Just like always.*

(Previously: 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015,  2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008.)

Best Picture: Let's not fixate on this, but it's been a WHILE since I called this category correctly. Fortunately I think this is the year I turn it around: I'm going with "1917." The only possible upset that I can envision is "Parasite," but I'm still sticking with the heartfelt, technical wizardry of "1917."

Best Director: Tough category, but I think the serious contenders are Bong Joon Ho, Quentin Tarantino, and Sam Mendes. I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see any of them win, which makes this an exciting category to watch! However, while I don't like being a slave to the math or history of predictions, it's been many, many years since the winner of the Directors Guild Award didn't go on to win to Oscar, so I'm going with Sam Mendes.

Best Actor: This is a year where it seems like each of the acting categories are prettttttty sewn up. Anything can happen, of course, but all of the awards have been going to the same people in each of the four categories. So let's do these quickly! Best Actor is definitely going to Joaquin Phoenix. (As much as I may be personally pulling for Adam Driver...)

Best Actress: Renee Zellwegger will win her second career Oscar for her portrayal of Judy Garland in the lovely, heartbreaking "Judy."

Best Supporting Actor: The only thing better than Brad Pitt winning his first Oscar is the anticipation of what is sure to be another amazing, hilarious speech.

Best Supporting Actress: Scarlett Johansson was MAGIC in "Jojo Rabbit," and I'd love to see her win, but I believe this award belongs to our girl Laura Dern. And no one's mad about that. Not even Scarlett, I don't think.

Animated Feature: Remember when "The Missing Link" won the Golden Globe? Man. That was wild. And then "Klaus" won the Annie Award? I mean, it's cool to mix things up, but what is happening to the world? Don't they know Pixar is always supposed to win? (Kidding.) (But they will this year.) I think it'll be "Toy Story 4!"

Production Design: Man. Talk about a stacked category. It should come down to "1917" and "Once Upon a Time in Hollywood," with the award going to "Once Upon a Time in Hollywood."

Cinematography: ROGER! clapclapclap DEAKINS! clapclapclap Hollywood's reigning King of Cinematography will take home his second career Oscar, this time for "1917."

Costume Design: Let's be honest: "Jojo Rabbit" should win this one purely for Sam Rockwell's battle costume alone. Full stop. But I think this category is where "Little Women" will eke out its only win of the night.

Film Editing: Remember when "Bohemian Rhapsody" won this category last year? BON-KERS. I mean, LOOK AT THIS. Moving on. "Ford v Ferrari" and "Parasite" seem to be in a dead heat. But in the end, cutting between shots in racing scenes is a lot more flashy than the building tension of "Parasite," so I'm picking "Ford v Ferrari."

Makeup and Hairstyling: All of the love for the makeup in "Bombshell" has been going to Charlize Theron and her transformation into Megyn Kelly, and rightfully so. But let's not forget what they did to Nicole Kidman's face to make her resemble Gretchen Carlson. It was unreal! Anyway, if you couldn't tell, I'm picking "Bombshell" to win this category.

Original Score: Man. You know what's crazy? Thomas Newman has NEVER won an Oscar. We're talking about the composer of "Wall-e," 1994's "Little Women," "Finding Nemo," "The Shawshank Redemption," and so many more. This is his 14th nomination in this category, and it would be amazing to hear his name called. Unfortunately, I think Hildur Gudnadóttir will sneak in here with a win for "Joker."

Original Song: My personal favorite song on this list is "Stand Up." It's so, so good, and I frequently listen to it on repeat. Cynthia Erivo's voice is just OUT OF THIS WORLD. Plus if she wins here, she'll officially be the youngest EGOT winner in history. So let's just say I'm pulling for her here, despite that I'm predicting the award to go to Elton John for "(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again" from "Rocketman."

Original Screenplay: Conventional wisdom says that Bong Joon Ho will win this one for "Parasite," but for some reason I can't fathom Quentin Tarantino's name not being called in this category. I think it's going to be "Once Upon a Time in Hollywood."

Adapted Screenplay: You know what's possible? Greta Gerwig winning for "Little Women." You know what's not going to happen? An Academy of 68% male members voting for "Little Women." Where's the lie? ANYWAY. I think Taika Waititi's going to win for "Jojo Rabbit," and Taika giving an acceptance speech at the Oscars is a win for us ALL.

Sound Mixing: Racing sounds verses war sounds. Is it 2018, and I'm being forced to decide between "Baby Driver" and "Dunkirk" again? With "Ford v Ferrari" and "1917" going head to head in this category, it certainly feels like it! Picking the war movie worked for me then, so let's try it again now: "1917."

Sound Editing: Honestly, for the same logic I just used, I'm going with "1917" here too.

Visual Effects: "1917" was made to look like it was shot in one continuous take. But it wasn't. That's what is going to win it the award for Visual Effects.

Documentary Feature: This one should be going to "American Factory," but if not, don't be surprised to see "Honeyland" zip away with the win.

Documentary Short: All signs are pointing to a big win by "Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're a Girl)." Let's go, girls!

International Feature Film: Definitely, definitely, definitely "Parasite."

Animated Short: "Hair Love" dissolved my heart and made me weep. And with its cool story of how it got made, it would be amazing to see it win. And you know what? I think it will. I'm going with "Hair Love."

Live Action Short: Let's... go... with... "Brotherhood." (?)

*🎵 That's not truuuuuuuue! 🎵