19th Annual Oscar Picks

Your favorite time of year has arrived! Yes, the Oscars, but more importantly: Valerie's Oscar PREDICTIONS! I won't make you wait any longer. All 24 of my completely correct (because we all know I'm never wrong*) picks are below, so grab your beanie, your sunglasses, and your plaid robe, and let's go!

(Previously: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015,  2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008.) 

Best Picture: While there's a world where "Hamnet" could pull out the win (it did take home Best Drama at the Golden Globes, I think this is really just a two-person race: it's down to "One Battle After Another" and "Sinners." Both are worthy recipients, and both have racked up several of the prerequisite award indicators. And while "Sinners" has been building up steam in recent weeks, I don't think it's enough to take down "One Battle After Another," which will be the ultimate winner come Oscar night.

Best Director: Even if "Sinners" does win, I don't think this is Ryan Coogler's year. This prize almost assuredly has Paul Thomas Anderson's name already engraved on it, for directing "One Battle After Another." This is his fourth time being nominated, and I think most of the Academy sees him as being overdue for this honor!

Best Actor: Listen, this was Timmy's award to lose. And I fear he might have. I really thought he had this one sewn up, but you kind of get the sense that voters are getting tired of his campaign, and there definitely seems to be a late surge in support for Michael B. Jordan. It could still happen for Chalamet, but you know what? I'm picking this one for Michael B. Jordan. Go Lions. 

Best Actress: It will be the shock of a lifetime if Jessie Buckley doesn't win for her transformative performance in "Hamnet." The gold's going home with her on Oscar night!

Best Supporting Actor: I'd honestly love to see Stellan Skarsgård up on the stage accepting this award, but I don't think it's his year. Instead, I think it'll be Academy favorite Sean Penn (love him or hate him, the man already owns two Oscars) for his bone-chilling performance in "One Battle After Another."

Best Supporting Actress: I came VERY close to calling this category for Amy Madigan, especially after her big win at the Actor Awards. But you know who else won that award? Demi Moore. And she didn't end up winning the Oscar. (Which was embarrassing. For me personally.) Add in the fact that the Academy historically gives the cold shoulder to horror films (plus it's the ONLY nomination for "Weapons," which makes me think voters don't love it enough), and I'm coming away thinking this statuette's not necessarily hers. Instead, I'm going with Teyana Taylor, who did so much with her limited screen time in "One Battle" that I don't think the Academy will be able to ignore her. 

Animated Feature: I don't mean to sound too sure... except I totally am. This one's going to "K-Pop Demon Hunters!" It's insanely popular, original, and has already won a pile of awards on its road to the Dolby Theatre. This one belongs to Rumi and the gang!

Production Design: When you have something as artistic and gothic as "Frankenstein" on the ballot, it's really hard to go with anything else. So I won't.

Cinematography: It's looking like another tight race between "One Battle After Another" and "Sinners." But when I personally think back on my viewing experience of those two movies, I really do find "Sinners" to be more memorable in this area. Plus, if "Sinners" cinematographer Autumn Durald Arkapaw wins, she will be the FIRST! WOMAN! EVER! to win in this category. So I can't not pick her. "Sinners" it is!

Film Editing: I know I say this every year, but I like to opt for my Best Picture pick in this category. So mostly for that reason, I'm going with "One Battle After Another!"

Casting: And here we have a BRAND-NEW category! Look at her: so beautiful and shiny. This one is a little tricky to try to predict, mostly because we don't have any history to go on! So I'm just going to lean toward what I know: the "Marty Supreme" team compiled an impressive list of professional actors, random faces they spotted in YouTube videos or on the street, and that one guy from Shark Tank. I think Marty's got this one locked down!

Makeup and Hairstyling: I almost feel the MOST confident in this category: it's for sure going to be "Frankenstein."  

Costume Design: Okay, I have to be honest: I love this category! It's one of my favorites to dig into and try to predict, so I'm really happy to spend time time thinking about the winner for Best Costume Design. Immediately I'm zeroing in on "Frankenstein" and "Hamnet." The Academy tends to love old, sumptious costumes—the more fabrics the better. So we find ourselves in a corset vs. corset race! But as you saw above, voters may be leaning "Frankenstein" come Oscar night, so I think I will too. 

Original Score: You know what else the Academy loves? Ludwig Göransson. I think the love affair continues this year, as they'll award him his third Oscar, this time for "Sinners."

Original Song: They can't give it to Diane Warren, right? And ruin the best running joke in Oscars history? The possibility of her winning after SIXTEEN losses... I won't hear it and I won't respond to it. Anyway, I feel like "I Lied to You" from "Sinners" probably should win, but it'd hard to imagine anything but "K-Pop Demon Hunters'" "Golden" winning here.

Original Screenplay: I think it would be crazy to pick anything but "Sinners" here.

Adapted Screenplay: I think it would be crazy to pick anything but "One Battle After Another" here.

Sound: Similar to the way "Best Editing" conversations typically surround those movies with the MOST editing, I think voters here will go for the movie with the MOST sound, which in this case would be "F1." 

Visual Effects: I feel like voters won't even bother seeing all of the nominees in this category? Or really thinking too long about it at all? It seems likely that most of them will just see the title "Avatar: Fire & Ash," tick that box, and then movie on to the next one. (Cynical? Maybe. Accurate? TBD.)

Documentary Feature: "The Perfect Neighbor" was so raw, real, and original, and it had a LOT of buzz when it first debuted. I think between that originality and popularity, "The Perfect Neighbor" will run away with this award.

Documentary Short: Last year I made my pick here based almost entirely on the title. I can't do that this year, because they just ALL seem SO DEPRESSING and BLEAK, oh my gosh! Just give it to all of them already! I'm just going to have to wipe the years off my keyboard and go with the masses: I think it'll be "All the Empty Rooms." 

International Feature Film: "The Secret Agent" has a very real chance of winning here! Brazil could pull a repeat of last year and take home the gold here, and I wouldn't be TOTALLY shocked to see that happen. However, I think the more likely scenario is "Sentimental Value" being the big winner. It has a ton of other nominations, including Best Picture, so I feel like this is kind of theirs to lose!

Live Action Short: It's looking like this one could go to "Two People Exchanging Saliva," but I watched the trailers for both this one and "A Friend of Dorothy," and the latter made me tear up. I'd like to think the Academy is going to reward the sweeter, gentler option of the two, so I'm going with "A Friend of Dorothy."   

Animated Short: My money is on "Butterfly." (But not real, money, of course. Those little plastic coins that come in kids' play purses.)

*Actually, studies show that this is a 100% inaccurate statement. We apologize for the inconvenience. Visit your point of sale for a refund on your blog reading fee. 

2025 Favorites

 My Three Favorite Books I Read in 2025

Favorite "new to me" books I read this year.

3. Falling Like Leaves, Misty Wilson
A sweet, high school-set romance. A small town chock full of fall-themed festivals. Mix in tasty baked goods, authentic character growth, and proclamations of love, and you have all of the essential ingredients for a supremely enjoyable (and cozy!) autumn read. I mean really—what's not to love? We've got corn mazes and pumpkin spice lattes. We've got real emotions. We've got adorable (and clearly smitten, despite what he says) baker boys. If you're down for a sugary sweet YA romcom with impeccable fall vibes and genuine emotions, this one is a must-read! 
“I meant I didn’t want you to chase me anymore because I don’t want to be running. I just want to be with you.”

2. Fake Skating, Lynn Painter
I was ALL IN on this book from the jump! A YA, dual-POV, sweet and funny hockey romance? Where do I sign? Give me a pen, I'm signing, you're signing, we're all signing! First and foremost, I loved these characters. They had real depth, struggled with real issues, and I could feel their very real emotions (jealousy! disappointment! infatuation!) beaming at me from every page. There is just so much goodness here! The characters' solid (for the most part) families. The tension simmering throughout. The fact that our MMC was DOWN BAD for our FMC. I smiled. I cried. I WILL be reading this one again. ILYSM, Lynn Painter!!!
“I wished I didn't know that her lip gloss tasted like cherries.”

1. My Favorite Bad Decision, Elizabeth O'Roark
Almost no one is doing it like Elizabeth O'Roark. Her ability to spin an original story filled with incredibly detailed and well-fleshed-out characters is unreal, and I just love her romances so much! She also wrote my favorite book of 2023, but unlike the beachy setting of "The Devil and the Deep Blue Sea," this time we are trekking up a mountain. Literally. We join Kit as she's preparing to hike her way up a guided tour of Mount Kilimanjaro, only to find a familiar face among the other tourists. (A very attractive one, of course). Miller is an essentially perfect man, and his care for Kit throughout gave me all the starry eyes. Well-drawn characters, believable conflict and growth, sharp dialogue... I'm here for all of it. And you will be too—you gotta check this one out!
“I’ve been in love with you for a decade. You really think I wouldn’t wait two more weeks?” 

Honorable Mention

Wait For It by Mariana Zapata 
Deep End by Ali Hazelwood 
The Wishing Game by Meg Shaffer
Dating and Dragons by Kristy Boyce 
All Rhodes Lead Here by Mariana Zapata
Nine Month Contract by Amy Daws 

My Three Favorite Movies of 2025

3.  F1: The Movie
Going into this movie, I knew almost nothing about F1, other than it's very popular, and its drivers are very hot. And while "F1: The Movie" didn't necessarily convince me to be a race-head (F-Oneder?), I DID have a blast watching it. Anchored by an exceedingly charismatic Brad Pitt, who toes the line between cocky and self-deprecating, and propelled forward with gorgeous cinematography and a beautiful score, watching "F1" really feels like witnessing the work of a team of people who just really know what they're doing. Watching Brad Pitt be a Cool Guy (we know he's cool because he wears a lot of denim and runs on the STREET not a TREADMILL) is always fun, plus "F1" gave us that one Javier Bardem gif AND got nominated for Best Picture, so what can I say? It's a win.

2. Americana
After a run of sequels and remakes last summer, it was incredibly refreshing to sit through a movie where I truly had no idea where the story was going! "Americana" was a great theatrical experience, and I really enjoyed following a diverse cast of characters that included a stuttering waitress, a Joan Jett lookalike, and a boy who thinks he's the reincarnation of Sitting Bull. Structured in a series of subtitled vignettes (ie "The Ballad of Lefty and Penny Jo"), "Americana" puts in motion what initially seems like a straightforward crime caper that soon devolves into unpredictable chaos, and the game becomes an attempt to guess who might make it out of all of this alive. It's a solid little gem, and I encourage you to check it out!

1. Rental Family
The gentlest, most empathetic film I saw all year was "Rental Family." Brendan Fraser stars as Phillip, a lonely American trying to make a living as an actor in Japan. He ends up taking a gig as a sort of stand-in in people's lives, whether that's as a video game companion, a last-minute groom, or a surrogate father. The film ends up weaving together a beautiful tapestry of all of these different roles, and we find ourselves joining Phillip as he moves through these people's lives. Fraser is unreal in the role—his empathy and humanity are so clearly evident, it feels like he's making a direct connection not only with all of the other characters, but with each audience member as well. "Rental Family" is sharp, insightful, and tender, and I'm just so happy it exists. 

 
Honorable Mention: Blue Moon, Black Bag, One of Them Days, Presence, Mission Impossible: Final Reckoning, The Naked Gun

My Three Favorite TV Shows of 2025

Favorite shows I started watching this year:

3. Ghosts
Ghosts feels like the little show that could. I've found myself watching it here and there, sprinkled throughout my year, and it's been a sweet and gently funny little bit of escapism. Rose McIver (from a 2016 favorite, "iZombie!") has a near death experience in the first episode, which leads to her ability to see—and communicate with—ghosts. And seeing how she and her husband (the always entertaining Utkarsh Ambudkar) just inherited a very old home they're turning into a bed & breakfast, there are a lot—a lot—of ghosts around for her to not only see, but also befriend. The ghosts themselves are a hilarious, mismatched bunch, but it's the unexpected moments of the ghosts tenderly remembering their lives before... you know... that make this show stand out above other sitcoms.
Stream it on Paramount+

2. North of North
One day I clicked on this show at random, not really knowing much about it. Within one episode I was hooked, all too eager to spend time with the residents of Ice Cove, and especially Siaja, a delightfully earnest and adorable protagonist. Set in the Canadian Arctic, "North of North" offers small-town drama, quirky characters, and will-they-won't-they vibes in spades, and I ate up every freezing, entertaining moment. It's heartfelt, surprising, and a little bonkers—but aren't all the best things? 
Stream it on Netflix

1. The Pitt 
I didn't start watching "The Pitt" until the entire first season was available. And then what did we do? We watched the entire thing in less than a week. Yes we did. Man. This show. It is brutal and disgusting and sad and scary. But it's also fascinating. And life-affirming. And funny. And absolutely brimming with empathy. Led by the brilliant and compassionate Noah Wyle (y'all, the CARING EYES on this man), the characters of "The Pitt" all feel not only incredibly real and fleshed-out, but also let their competency SHINE. And watching really smart people just be really good at their jobs? That's something kind of rare. 
Stream it on HBO Max

 
Honorable Mention: The Residence, The Four Seasons, Superman & Lois

My Three Favorite Events of 2025

3. Christmas in Arizona
So it's me, my parents, my brother, my sister, my brother-in-law, AND my nieces together at an AWESOME AirBnB in Phoenix. Right before Christmas. With nothing to do but enjoy each other. WHAT MORE COULD A GIRL WANT? Oh, a trip to the theater to see a production of "A Christmas Carol?" A visit to our favorite organ-centric pizza place? Board games and ping pong and charades and fooseball? A heated pool? Check, check, and CHECK to all of the above. It was fun and wonderful and completely unforgettable, but just in case I do ever forget it, I'll just go back to this video and press play:  

2. October Galveston Trip
Let's be honest: just about every Galveston trip with the fam is my favorite. So you're not shocked to see this here. But this was an exceedingly fun and restful week away, and somewhere in an alternate universe, I'm still there, Groundhog Day-ing it over and over so I can once again relive block-stacking games at the Tipsy Turtle, sand castle-building at the beach, Taylor Swift dance parties (okay so that was just me and Lucia), ice cream on the Strand, and a memorable visit to Pleasure Pier—minus that last ride that made everyone feel nauseated for the next hour. Enjoy it, alternate universe Val. I wish it was me. 

1. Thanksgiving Family Reunion 
It feels like a rare thing to not only have 49 extended family members who actually want to hang out with each other, but who also make the effort to actually make that happen. (And it takes a lot of effort! Huge thanks again to everyone who made this happen!) For four days at a retreat center outside of Waco over Thanksgiving, we got to play games and family trivia, eat incredible food, relive family members laugh around a fire, and watch the youngest generation of kiddos (the first cousins once removed?) run around and destroy each other in a (mostly) friendly game of an old family favorite: Dynamite. No time with the Smiths, Ciminellos, Cooks, Michaelises, and Morbys will ever be enough. But this was a good start. 

Honorable Mention: Galveston with Ellie, desk refresh 2K25, January Austin trip, time with Mom during my surgery recovery, May cousin campout, nieces in Houston/Galveston in June, Valentine's trip to Phoenix, that one especially good hair day I had on April 16, great time with the Cloud cousins and family friends in February, Ciminellos at family camp, and checking off my summer bucket list!