It's been a weird year for movies, and it very well may also be a weird Oscars ceremony. But that doesn't mean we can't celebrate films! Or that I can't make correct predictions in every single category, as I do every year.*
(Previously: 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008.)
Best Picture: As always, I think this is pretty much anybody's game—particularly "Nomadland," "The Trial of the Chicago 7," and "Minari." However, with a whole pile of wins in various awards show's best picture categories, I'm calling this one for "Nomadland."
Best Director: This category doesn't always go to the Best Picture winner—but I think it will this year. Count on Chloe Zhao to be the second woman to ever win Best Director!
Best Actor: If ever there were a lock, it's this one. Chadwick Boseman is sure to win a posthumous Oscar for his performance in "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom." Bless you, Chadwick.
Best Actress: This one feels a little bit like a toss-up to me. I really think anyone in this category could pull off a win—well, except for Vanessa Kirby. (But you're lovely, Vanessa! I'm sure your time will come!) I think it's actually going to come down to Frances, Viola, and Andra, and in the end I'm putting all my (fake) money on Viola Davis.
Best Supporting Actor: We could potentially see an upset here, but ultimately all the signs are pointing to a win for Daniel Kaluuya for his performance in "Judas and the Black Messiah."
Best Supporting Actress: A category I don't feel confident about: this one. It's coming down to Youn Yuh-jung and Maria Bakalova for two films at opposite ends of the spectrum ("Minari" and "Borat"), but in the end I'm going with sweet Youn Yuh-jung.
Animated Feature: Look, TECHNICALLY anything is possible. But not any film other than "Soul" walking away with this award.
Production Design: "Mank" has a lot going for it in this category, chiefly its old Hollywood aesthetic that Academy voters won't be able to resist.
Cinematography: Who will reign supreme in the world of cinematography: the sweeping vistas of "Nomadland," or the black and white artistry of "Mank?" I wish I could pick two—maybe there'll be a tie! (hey, it could happen!)—but in the end I'm going with "Nomadland."
Costume Design: It's hard to imagine a Regency-era film like "Emma" not taking home Best Costumes, but it's really looking like "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom" is the one to beat.
Film Editing: When all else fails, I like to predict the Best Picture winner to also win this category, so it's entirely possible "Nomadland" could win here as well. However, the addition of actual archival footage woven into "The Trial of the Chicago 7" means I believe they're going to win this category.
Makeup and Hairstyling: Okay, it's really hard not to pick "Hillbilly Elegy" here, because did you see the transformation they pulled off for Glenn Close? Insane. But I don't think it's "Hillbilly Elegy's" night. (Do you think Academy members are too embarrassed that people might find out they voted for that movie in ANY category to actually check that box?) Instead, "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom" will almost certainly take this one home.
Original Score: An animated film hasn't taken home the award for Best Score since 2009's "Up," which we all know is one of my all-time faves (movies and scores). This year Pixar will make a return trip up to the stage for this category when they win for "Soul's" breathtaking music.
Original Song: Listen. I actually, genuinely think the song "Husavik" from "Eurovision" is truly, unironically good. And it's entirely possible that it could win. (Seriously.) However, we've all heard Leslie Odom Jr. sing, and I don't know how they can vote for anyone else. "One Night in Miami" will win its only award of the night for "Speak Now."
Original Screenplay: I wouldn't be at all shocked if Aaron Sorkin were to win for "The Trial of the Chicago 7"—he is a master, after all. But I think the Academy will want to honor "Promising Young Woman" in some way, so look for their support to show up in this category.
Adapted Screenplay: I can't bring myself to predict a win for "Borat" here, I just can't—despite what some prognosticators are saying. Others think it will be "The Father," but I think "Nomadland" will get the gold here.
Sound: They finally, finally combined the two sound categories of years past (editing and mixing) into one and lo, there was much rejoicing. No shade to the sound professionals, it just made predicting difficult! That being said, I think we'll all be shocked if "Sound of Metal" doesn't take this one home.
Visual Effects: Honestly, "Tenet" should be up for more categories. There, I said it. But the important part is actually winning, and I think "Tenet" will win for Visual Effects.
Documentary Feature: This category is weirdly giving me a lot of trouble. I keep trying to visualize the moment they open the envelope—will they say "Time," or will they say "My Octopus Teacher?" Wait a minute, wait a minute, wait a minute, I've got it: it's going to "Time."
Documentary Short: Ah yes, everyone's favorite category. I'm ticking the box next to "A Love Song For Latasha" for this one.
International Feature Film: This will probably go to "Another Round." Probably.
Animated Short: I've heard so much about "If Anything Happens I Love You" this year, it's hard to imagine anything else winning.
Live Action Short: Sorry, just gotta pick between "The Letter Room" and "Two Distant Strangers" real quick. Eeny, meeny, miny... "Two Distant Strangers."
*Here's the thing: that's just not true. And I'm sorry I lied. I'm so sorry.
