15th Annual Oscar Picks

If I were an Academy voter, I'd be ticking the box next to "West Side Story" all the way down the ballot. Unfortunately they still haven't invited me to be a member (crazy, right?), so it's not up to me. Instead, these are my predictions of what I think Academy voters will do. And I know I'm 100% right, as I have never been wrong before. What's that like?*

(Previously: 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015,  2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008.)

 

Best Picture: For the longest time, all anyone was predicting for this category was "The Power of the Dog." Then "CODA" won the SAG and the PGA, and the tide turned its favor: everyone seems to be forecasting a "CODA" win. But I've got to go with my gut—I'm sticking with "The Power of the Dog." It's got a pile of awards on its side, plus a slew of the right Oscar nominations like director and editing, and I just don't think it's enough for "CODA" to overcome. (Side note: if anything other than those two wins, I will be truly shocked.)

Best Director: I'm pairing this category with Best Picture: I think it's going to Jane Campion. What's cool is that a win for Campion would mean back-to-back female winners in this category after Chloe Zhao's took home the prize last year!

Best Actor: The name I wish I was writing here: Andrew Garfield for "tick, tick...BOOM!" The name I am writing: Will Smith.

Best Actress: This is the rare category where almost anyone could walk away with the prize. It makes it super tough to predict, but I think Jessica Chastain might finally pull out a win after two previous nominations.

Best Supporting Actor: I mean, the SHOCK I will feel if anybody but Troy Kotsur gets this one. I will be ON THE FLOOR.

Best Supporting Actress: Let's hear it for our girl, Ariana DeBose! She has danced her way through this awards season scooping up every prize on her way to the Oscars, and I can't wait to see her smiling face shining on the stage of the Dolby Theatre.

Animated Feature: Listen, this one may very well go to "Encanto." Which is... fine. But I just don't see how a kind of lackluster film (granted, with great songs) gets more love than the supremely well-crafted and insanely creative "The Mitchells vs the Machines." I'm praying for an 11th hour miracle and hoping the Academy shows up for the Mitchell family. 

Production Design: I kind of want to be controversial and pick "West Side Story" or "Nightmare Alley." But—despite how not great I may be doing so far—I actually want to pick the most winners. And in this case, the winds seem to be blowing in the direction of "Dune."

Cinematography: There are a few indicators out there that point to a win for "Power of the Dog," but the American Society of Cinematographers gave their top prize to "Dune." So I think it'll be "Dune."

Costume Design: If Paul Tazwell were to win for "West Side Story" (which I think would definitely be deserved), he would be the first Black male to win in this category! But "Cruella" has this one in the bag.

Film Editing: Feels like it could really be anyone! (Wouldn't it be cool if it was "tick, tick...BOOM!" though?) I kind of think it comes down to "Power of the Dog" and "Dune," though, so eeny, meeny, miny, "Dune."

Makeup and Hairstyling: I won't be surprised if "Cruella" picks this one up, but I'm putting my fictional money behind "The Eyes of Tammy Faye."

Original Score: If there's a lock on this ballot, it's gotta be "Dune" winning Best Score, right?

Original Song: I think it's more than possible that Billie Eilish will scoop this one up for "No Time to Die." But I can't shake the feeling that Academy voters will be looking for a way to award the whole "Encanto" soundtrack (most notably "We Don't Talk About Bruno") when they select "Dos Oruguitas" to win this category, so let's go with "Encanto."

Original Screenplay: This will probably the only award of the evening that "Belfast" goes home with.

Adapted Screenplay: It's a showdown between the two top Best Picture contenders—if it's not "CODA" it'll be "The Power of the Dog."

Sound: It's gotta be "Dune," right? I feel pretty comfortable saying no other movie has a chance here.

Visual Effects: I don't think the Academy is ready to give Marvel the gold in this category, so count on "Dune" grabbing this one too.

Documentary Feature: It's going to be fun seeing Questlove accept the award for "Summer of Soul!"

Documentary Short: We're going with "The Queen of Basketball" for this one, folks!

International Feature Film:  I can't envision a future where "Drive My Car" doesn't win here.

Animated Short: "Robin Robin" is the only one of the nominees I've even heard of, and it seems to have some steam behind it, so that's going to be my pick!

Live Action Short:  This is me spinning a giant wheel with all five potential winners on it and landing on... "The Long Goodbye!"

*For legal reasons, this is a joke.