19th Annual Oscar Picks

Your favorite time of year has arrived! Yes, the Oscars, but more importantly: Valerie's Oscar PREDICTIONS! I won't make you wait any longer. All 24 of my completely correct (because we all know I'm never wrong*) picks are below, so grab your beanie, your sunglasses, and your plaid robe, and let's go!

(Previously: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015,  2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008.) 

Best Picture: While there's a world where "Hamnet" could pull out the win (it did take home Best Drama at the Golden Globes, I think this is really just a two-person race: it's down to "One Battle After Another" and "Sinners." Both are worthy recipients, and both have racked up several of the prerequisite award indicators. And while "Sinners" has been building up steam in recent weeks, I don't think it's enough to take down "One Battle After Another," which will be the ultimate winner come Oscar night.

Best Director: Even if "Sinners" does win, I don't think this is Ryan Coogler's year. This prize almost assuredly has Paul Thomas Anderson's name already engraved on it, for directing "One Battle After Another." This is his fourth time being nominated, and I think most of the Academy sees him as being overdue for this honor!

Best Actor: Listen, this was Timmy's award to lose. And I fear he might have. I really thought he had this one sewn up, but you kind of get the sense that voters are getting tired of his campaign, and there definitely seems to be a late surge in support for Michael B. Jordan. It could still happen for Chalamet, but you know what? I'm picking this one for Michael B. Jordan. Go Lions. 

Best Actress: It will be the shock of a lifetime if Jessie Buckley doesn't win for her transformative performance in "Hamnet." The gold's going home with her on Oscar night!

Best Supporting Actor: I'd honestly love to see Stellan Skarsgård up on the stage accepting this award, but I don't think it's his year. Instead, I think it'll be Academy favorite Sean Penn (love him or hate him, the man already owns two Oscars) for his bone-chilling performance in "One Battle After Another."

Best Supporting Actress: I came VERY close to calling this category for Amy Madigan, especially after her big win at the Actor Awards. But you know who else won that award? Demi Moore. And she didn't end up winning the Oscar. (Which was embarrassing. For me personally.) Add in the fact that the Academy historically gives the cold shoulder to horror films (plus it's the ONLY nomination for "Weapons," which makes me think voters don't love it enough), and I'm coming away thinking this statuette's not necessarily hers. Instead, I'm going with Teyana Taylor, who did so much with her limited screen time in "One Battle" that I don't think the Academy will be able to ignore her. 

Animated Feature: I don't mean to sound too sure... except I totally am. This one's going to "K-Pop Demon Hunters!" It's insanely popular, original, and has already won a pile of awards on its road to the Dolby Theatre. This one belongs to Rumi and the gang!

Production Design: When you have something as artistic and gothic as "Frankenstein" on the ballot, it's really hard to go with anything else. So I won't.

Cinematography: It's looking like another tight race between "One Battle After Another" and "Sinners." But when I personally think back on my viewing experience of those two movies, I really do find "Sinners" to be more memorable in this area. Plus, if "Sinners" cinematographer Autumn Durald Arkapaw wins, she will be the FIRST! WOMAN! EVER! to win in this category. So I can't not pick her. "Sinners" it is!

Film Editing: I know I say this every year, but I like to opt for my Best Picture pick in this category. So mostly for that reason, I'm going with "One Battle After Another!"

Casting: And here we have a BRAND-NEW category! Look at her: so beautiful and shiny. This one is a little tricky to try to predict, mostly because we don't have any history to go on! So I'm just going to lean toward what I know: the "Marty Supreme" team compiled an impressive list of professional actors, random faces they spotted in YouTube videos or on the street, and that one guy from Shark Tank. I think Marty's got this one locked down!

Makeup and Hairstyling: I almost feel the MOST confident in this category: it's for sure going to be "Frankenstein."  

Costume Design: Okay, I have to be honest: I love this category! It's one of my favorites to dig into and try to predict, so I'm really happy to spend time time thinking about the winner for Best Costume Design. Immediately I'm zeroing in on "Frankenstein" and "Hamnet." The Academy tends to love old, sumptious costumes—the more fabrics the better. So we find ourselves in a corset vs. corset race! But as you saw above, voters may be leaning "Frankenstein" come Oscar night, so I think I will too. 

Original Score: You know what else the Academy loves? Ludwig Göransson. I think the love affair continues this year, as they'll award him his third Oscar, this time for "Sinners."

Original Song: They can't give it to Diane Warren, right? And ruin the best running joke in Oscars history? The possibility of her winning after SIXTEEN losses... I won't hear it and I won't respond to it. Anyway, I feel like "I Lied to You" from "Sinners" probably should win, but it'd hard to imagine anything but "K-Pop Demon Hunters'" "Golden" winning here.

Original Screenplay: I think it would be crazy to pick anything but "Sinners" here.

Adapted Screenplay: I think it would be crazy to pick anything but "One Battle After Another" here.

Sound: Similar to the way "Best Editing" conversations typically surround those movies with the MOST editing, I think voters here will go for the movie with the MOST sound, which in this case would be "F1." 

Visual Effects: I feel like voters won't even bother seeing all of the nominees in this category? Or really thinking too long about it at all? It seems likely that most of them will just see the title "Avatar: Fire & Ash," tick that box, and then movie on to the next one. (Cynical? Maybe. Accurate? TBD.)

Documentary Feature: "The Perfect Neighbor" was so raw, real, and original, and it had a LOT of buzz when it first debuted. I think between that originality and popularity, "The Perfect Neighbor" will run away with this award.

Documentary Short: Last year I made my pick here based almost entirely on the title. I can't do that this year, because they just ALL seem SO DEPRESSING and BLEAK, oh my gosh! Just give it to all of them already! I'm just going to have to wipe the years off my keyboard and go with the masses: I think it'll be "All the Empty Rooms." 

International Feature Film: "The Secret Agent" has a very real chance of winning here! Brazil could pull a repeat of last year and take home the gold here, and I wouldn't be TOTALLY shocked to see that happen. However, I think the more likely scenario is "Sentimental Value" being the big winner. It has a ton of other nominations, including Best Picture, so I feel like this is kind of theirs to lose!

Live Action Short: It's looking like this one could go to "Two People Exchanging Saliva," but I watched the trailers for both this one and "A Friend of Dorothy," and the latter made me tear up. I'd like to think the Academy is going to reward the sweeter, gentler option of the two, so I'm going with "A Friend of Dorothy."   

Animated Short: My money is on "Butterfly." (But not real, money, of course. Those little plastic coins that come in kids' play purses.)

*Actually, studies show that this is a 100% inaccurate statement. We apologize for the inconvenience. Visit your point of sale for a refund on your blog reading fee.