18th Annual Oscar Picks

I'm a lot of things: Cinephile. Procrastinator. Oscars prognosticator. One thing I'm not? Is EVER wrong.*

(Previously: 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015,  2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008.) 

Best Picture: I would be shocked if "Wicked," "A Complete Unknown," "Dune: Part Two," "The Substance," or "I'm Still Here," were announced as the winner of Best Picture this year. I'd be slightly less shocked, but still surprised, if it were to be "The Nickel Boys" or "Anora." So that leaves me with "Conclave," "The Brutalist," and "Emilia Perez." Early on the tides seemed to be turning in favor of "Emilia Perez," but I think its fervor has cooled considerably as of late. I think "The Brutalist" has a solid shot of taking it, but I've just got to go with my gut here: I think it's going to be "Conclave."

Best Director: I'm not betting against the Director's Guild on this one! My money's on Sean Baker.

Best Actor: It's been funny to watch this award jump to different recipients in this category all season long, which means this one is really up in the air. If it goes to Timothee Chalamet, he'll be the youngest winner ever. If it goes to Adrien Brody, it'll go to the CURRENT holder of the record. Either way, I think it'll be one of them, and in the end I'm leaning Brody.

Best Actress: Here we have another split category, this one between Demi Moore and Mikey Madison. However, I think the Academy will look to honor an older veteran of the industry, so I'm betting on Moore. 

Best Supporting Actor: Here we have this year's LOCK: it's gonna be the charming Kieran Culkin for "A Real Pain."

Best Supporting Actress: There's a chance Isabella Rosellini sneaks in here and takes it, but Zoe Saldaña has been winning all season, and I don't see that stopping now! (Our baby ballerina's all grown up!)

Animated Feature: The tea is that I wouldn't be surprised to see basically any of these films win. It's hard to bet against Pixar or the "Wallace & Gromit" crew, and "Flow" certainly seems to be a favorite! However, "The Wild Robot" seems to have a lot of heat behind it coming into Sunday's ceremony, so I'm going with Lupita and co this time.

Production Design: I don't feel SUPER strongly one way or the other, but I really think this might be "Wicked's" to lose.

Cinematography: I'm torn between "The Brutalist" and "Dune: Part Two" here. While I think most are going with "The Brutalist," I've gotta give my vote to "Dune: Part Two." Typically the Academy goes for the MOST in these types of categories, and with Dune, I think they'll have those black and white scenes in mind and tick the box next to Greig Fraser's name.

Film Editing: I don't like to vote against my own Best Picture pick, so I'm going with "Conclave" here! 

Costume Design: I said this a few years ago when Paul Tazewell was up for this award for "West Side Story" (which unfortunately he didn't win), BUT if he wins this year? He'll be the first Black man to take home the Oscar in this category! How cool is that? All that being said, I really do think this is another opportunity for "Wicked" to float straight to the stage in its bubble!

Makeup and Hairstyling: Sorry, Green Girl. Although "Wicked" technically, sorta, kinda has a shot to win this one, I really really think it's going to be "The Substance."

Original Score: It absolutely BLOWS MY MIND that "Challengers" isn't nominated in this category. It's absolutely bonkers that the movie that won this category at the Golden Globes was completely shut out for the Oscars! I just truly do not understand it. Anyway. To me there are no front runners here, as I haven't heard ANYTHING about the music in these movies. That being said, I listened to a few overtures and think that "The Brutalist" may be just striking enough to take home the prize.

Original Song: "El Mal" from "Emilia Perez" has been winning this category a lot, including the Globes and the Critic's Choice Awards, so I think they're likely to win here too. 

Original Screenplay: I may end up being wrong picking "Conclave" over "Anora" for Best Picture, but I'm counting out the latter here. I'm checking the "Anora" box for Best Original Screenplay.

Adapted Screenplay: Okay but I AM picking "Conclave" for this one as well. Get on the pope train, y'all!

Sound: This one's for you, Dune-heads. Just like a few years ago with Part 1, "Dune: Part Two" is going to win Best Sound!

Visual Effects: Looking at these nominees (including "A Better Man," "Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes," and yes, even "Wicked"), you gotta think these voters must really be into CGI monkeys! However—and this might be bananas—but I think all those monkeys might split the vote. I'm going with "Dune: Part Two."

Documentary Feature: I just don't think there's any way it's not "No Other Land."

Documentary Short: Based almost entirely on the title alone, I am picking "I Am Ready, Warden."

International Feature Film: There's a chance "I'm Still Here," sneaks in and grabs this one, but "Emilia Perez" has been pretty unstoppable this awards season, so I'll go with that one.

Animated Short: "Wander to Wonder" looks adorable, and while I probably shouldn't pick it mostly because of that? I'm gonna.

Live Action Short:  The gold is going home with "The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent."

*More like "The Girl Who Could Not Stop From Being Wrong!"